NHL playoff watch: Can the Stars still win the Central?

Throughout much of the 2022-23 regular season, the Dallas Stars had a healthy lead in the Central Division. But thanks to a bit of a tailspin coming out of the All-Star break and some inconsistency thereafter — coupled with strong play by the Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche — they enter tonight’s game against the Nashville Predators (8:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+) in third place (as the Avs have a game in hand).

Can they still take home the regular-season crown for the Central, and a date with a wild-card team in Round 1 of the playoffs?

When pondering the relative strengths of schedule for Western Conference powers back on March 23, we noted how well the Stars were set up for a run. That’s still the case; of their six remaining contests, only one (this upcoming Saturday against the Vegas Golden Knights) is against a team in playoff position. For comparison, the Wild get the Knights tonight, the wild-card-contending Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday and the Winnipeg Jets on April 11. The Avs still have games against the Los Angeles Kings, Edmonton Oilers and Jets on their slate.

Despite those schedule differences, Money Puck’s projections give the edge to the Avalanche; Colorado has a 41.7% chance of winning the division, compared to 33.6% for Dallas and 24.7% for Minnesota.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Pittsburgh Penguins
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Minnesota Wild vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Dallas Stars
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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Monday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m. (NHLN)
Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars, 8:30 p.m.
Arizona Coyotes at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.

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Sunday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

New York Rangers 5, Washington Capitals 2
Boston Bruins 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New York Islanders 1
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Winnipeg Jets 6, New Jersey Devils 1
Detroit Red Wings 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Calgary Flames 5, Anaheim Ducks 4
Los Angeles Kings 4, Vancouver Canucks 1

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 125
Regulation wins: 50
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 5
Points pace: 133
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 6
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 5
Points pace: 102
Next game: @ NYR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 57%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 89
Next game: @ FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 9%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 5

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 4

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 70
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 6
Points pace: 116
Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 101
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 5
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. TB (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 73%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 62%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 2

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 77
Next game: @ STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Central Division

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 6
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. VGK (Monday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 6
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. NSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 95
Next game: vs. CGY (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 67%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ DAL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 9%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 71
Next game: @ SEA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 58
Next game: @ CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Pacific Division

Points: 101
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 6
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ MIN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 99
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 5
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ LA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. ARI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 97%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 27%
Tragic number: 9

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 81
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 64
Next game: vs. COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 60
Next game: vs. EDM (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 33

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29

*Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16: