MLB futures update: World Series, awards odds and predictions

Raise your hand if you predicted that, one month into the 2023 season, the Pittsburgh Pirates would be the National League’s winningest team.

I shouldn’t see many hands! (Barring, perhaps, those who decided to make a wild dart throw at a team that had +20000 preseason odds to win the World Series.)

Remarkably, the Pirates’ title odds haven’t improved as much as you might think, despite their 20-11 record entering play on Thursday, shrinking from +20000 to +10000. Nineteen teams have better odds of a World Series championship, including a San Francisco Giants team that has begun 13-17.

That’s just it: baseball folks tend to play the long game, recognizing that one month doesn’t a season make. One month into 2022, the Los Angeles Angels were 18-10 and 1 ½ games up in the American League West; they went 55-79 the rest of the way and finished 33 games back of the eventual champion Houston Astros. Similarly, I’d still expect the hot-starting Pirates to play sub-.500 ball the rest of the way — and their odds suggest I’m not alone — but they certainly should be better than expected.

Strangely, the injury-riddled New York Yankees’ championship odds haven’t budged, +750 in the preseason and +750 today, when they reside in last place in the American League East division. Perhaps more surprising, though, is that the 10-21, last-in-the-National League Central St. Louis Cardinals have seen their title odds improve, going from +2200 before the season to +2000!

The Tampa Bay Rays, who matched a modern record for consecutive wins to begin a season (13), have moved the needle considerably, going from +2500 preseason to +900 odds today. Naysayers point out how easy the Rays’ April schedule was — they played six of 29 games against last-place teams and 19-of-29 against sub-.500 teams — but the oddsmakers sure seem to believe (fifth-best title odds now).

A pair of young Atlanta Braves stars are the big movers and shakers in the individual awards races. Ronald Acuna Jr., who had +900 NL MVP odds, has emerged as the early favorite (+275) after a month’s play, thanks to .362/.449/.586 rates, major league-leading totals of 14 stolen bases and 26 runs scored and, of course, this 442-foot moon shot.

Meanwhile, Spencer Strider, whose NL Cy Young odds began at +800, has taken over as the favorite (+225), after he delivered four wins, a 2.57 ERA and a major league-leading 57 strikeouts through his first six starts. Is anyone really surprised that the Braves have shrunk their World Series-winning odds to +650?

With a month’s results now in the books, Derek Carty, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell and David Schoenfield offer their updated picks on which teams will take home the title, as well as which players will win the individual hardware, in 2023.

-By Tristan H. Cockcroft

To win the World Series odds

Note: All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook as of May 3.